![]() It’ll look like a convoy coming straight out of the west.” “The El Niño storms will be riding a subtropical jet stream. “This is not an El Niño storm yet,” Patzert said. ![]() Sign up to get the free newsletter >įor Southern California, the biggest rains of the season won’t be coming for at least a few more weeks - possibly before the end of December El Niño storms generally peak in California in January, February and March.īill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge, said the recent storm system clearly shows the breakdown of the drought-causing mass of high pressure. Water and Power is The Times’ guide to the drought. “It won’t be particularly significant, but it will rain at some point over the next week.” “Even Southern California will see some rain,” he said. “The northernmost part of California is now starting to get in on it this week, and it will see some decent rains down to the Bay Area between now and Sunday.” “These rains are shifting southward,” Swain said. “California so far has been somewhat normal in the northern part of the state and drier than average in the south.”īut the heavy rains hitting the Pacific Northwest are a preview of the effects of El Niño expected to sweep through California in the coming winter months, said Swain, the Stanford climate scientist. “The key season is really still to come,” Halpert said. This week’s storms in the Pacific Northwest and California, however, are not directly related to El Niño. “The current El Niño remains strong and is likely to stay strong through the winter,” Mike Halpert, the center’s deputy director, said. Daniel Swain, climate scientist at Stanford University that we’ve observed in the Pacific Northwest This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.Of all the years in which there was a strong El Niño present in the tropical Pacific Ocean, this is the wettest start. The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. However as history has shown, it's no guarantee that these areas will have another wet winter and spring ahead.Īnd as we've seen this past winter and spring, it doesn't take an El Niño to wring out a historically wet winter and spring in these areas. ![]() The main takeaway: The chance of a wetter winter and spring in 2023-24 has increased in California due to El Niño. But instead of El Niño, a rare triple-dip La Niña was on its last legs. What just happened last winter and spring is a textbook example.Ĭalifornia and the Southwest U.S. Second, El Niño isn't the be-all and end-all: Much like most bull or bear markets can't be attributed to only one factor in the economy, El Niño isn't the only driver of weather patterns.ĭay-to-day variability in the weather, including blocking patterns, forcing from climate change and other factors, all work together with El Niño to determine the overall weather experienced over a few months. Period with strong El Niños are shown by the red dots. This graph shows November-April statewide precipitation in California since 1895.
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